In the run-up to the midterm elections in the US, the rift between the US and Ukraine seemed to be deepening. Trump’s decision to buy diesel fuel from Russia was one of several setbacks for Ukraine.
But after the Democrats regained the majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed cautious hope. If the US Congress calls for increased economic or military support for Ukraine, it could “influence Putin,” he believes.
Jan Hallenberg, senior researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, predicts a turnaround.
Democrats, especially in the Senate, will signal that they disapprove of the president’s approach of being so understanding towards Russia. And they may seriously question the president’s agreement to import diesel fuel.
“Starting to bite”
The Senate can signal support for a more balanced Ukraine policy through both resolutions and bills, Jan Hallenberg believes. Although Trump has the right to veto, it may be difficult for him to go against such a position in the long run.
The president listens to opinion polls to some extent, and in this case, it is an election result that irrefutably goes against him.
Many Republicans have also been critical of Trump’s attitude towards Russia, and after his misjudgments in the midterm elections, more may dare to go against him, Hallenberg believes.
If the Democrats behave themselves and have reasonable proposals that the Republicans can agree to, then it may start to bite, he says.
Given up
Ukraine is primarily dependent on anti-aircraft missiles and American intelligence, emphasizes Jakob Hedenskog, an analyst at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs’ Centre for Eastern European Studies. Access to the Starlink and Starshield satellite systems is also extremely important.
Hedenskog believes that Zelenskyy has signalled that he has given up on Trump and is instead warning about what a Russian victory would mean for Europe.
Now he is quite clear that he expects more from the Europeans.
Ukraine wants the outside world to put maximum pressure on Russia through sanctions. But Trump has at least temporarily blocked a huge sanctions package against the country. Hedenskog believes that the president may become even more erratic and continue to act in his own best interests.
Ukraine and Zelenskyy are just an annoyance that prevents him from making “fantastic deals” with Russia on energy and minerals and things that will benefit Trump and the Trump family’s financial affairs.
What do you think?