Sweden can still advance as the worst group runner-up, but then they would need to beat Japan. Otherwise, they have a chance of becoming one of the eight best third-place teams.
If the results are as expected, it looks like Sweden will manage with the three points they already have thanks to the 5-1 win against Tunisia. But upsets from the Czech Republic or Ecuador, among others, could change that and force Sweden to take points from Japan.
Here are the standings in the twelve World Cup groups, listed in the order they are decided:
+ Group B
Standings: Canada 4, Switzerland 4, Bosnia-Herzegovina 1, Qatar 1
Remaining matches: Switzerland–Canada, Bosnia-Herzegovina–Qatar (Wednesday 9:00 p.m., local time in Sweden)
Most likely: Bosnia beats Qatar and the group's third place finishes with 4 points.
Swedish dream result: Bosnia–Qatar ends in a draw.
+ Group C
Standings: Brazil 4, Morocco 4, Scotland 3, Haiti 0
Remaining matches: Morocco–Haiti, Scotland–Brazil (Thursday 00:00)
Most likely: Scotland (currently 1–1 on goal difference) loses to Brazil and finishes third in the group with 3 points.
Swedish nightmare result: Scotland takes points.
+ Group A
Standings: Mexico 6, South Korea 3, Czech Republic 1, South Africa 1
Remaining matches: South Africa–South Korea, Czech Republic–Mexico (Thursday 3:00 a.m.)
Most likely: Neither the Czech Republic nor South Africa win, and the group gets a weak third place.
Swedish nightmare result: The Czech Republic roars in Mexico City and the group's third place gets 4 points.
+ Group E
Standings: Germany 6, Ivory Coast 3, Ecuador 1, Curaçao 1
Remaining matches: Ecuador–Germany, Curaçao–Ivory Coast (Thursday 10:00 p.m.)
Most likely: Ecuador and Curaçao will finish without a win and the group's third place will be weak.
Swedish nightmare result: Germany - already the clear group winner - loses to Ecuador.
+ Group F
Standings: Netherlands 4, Japan 4, Sweden 3, Tunisia 0
Remaining matches: Japan–Sweden, Tunisia–Netherlands (Friday 1:00 a.m.)
Most likely: Japan wins and Sweden finishes third with 3 points.
Swedish dream result: A Swedish victory and second place in the group. Or at least a point, which would almost certainly be enough to advance in third place.
+ Group D
Standings: USA 6, Australia 3, Paraguay 3, Turkey 0
Remaining matches: Turkey–USA, Paraguay–Australia (Friday 4:00 a.m.)
Most likely: Paraguay and Australia will cruise and both end up on 4 points.
Swedish dream result: One of the teams wins and third place in the group stays at 3 points.
+ Group I
Standings: France 6, Norway 6, Senegal 0, Iraq 0
Remaining matches: Norway–France, Senegal–Iraq (Friday 9:00 p.m.)
Most likely: Senegal beats Iraq and finishes with 3 points.
Swedish dream result: A draw would leave both teams at 1 point.
+ Group H
Standings: Spain 4, Uruguay 2, Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1
Remaining matches: Uruguay–Spain, Cape Verde–Saudi Arabia (Saturday 2:00 a.m.)
Most likely: Wins for Spain and Cape Verde. Uruguay will finish third in the group with 2 points.
Swedish nightmare result: Uruguay cruises or - even worse - wins a landslide victory against Spain.
+ Group G
Standings: Egypt 4, Iran 2, Belgium 2, New Zealand 1
Remaining matches: New Zealand–Belgium, Egypt–Iran (Saturday 5:00 a.m.)
Most likely: Victories for Belgium (heavy favorite) and Egypt (slight favorite).
Swedish nightmare result: Iran scores.
+ Group L
Standings: England 4, Ghana 4, Croatia 3, Panama 0
Remaining matches: Panama–England, Croatia–Ghana (Saturday 11:00 p.m.)
Most likely: Wins for England and Croatia. Ghana will finish third on 4 points.
Swedish dream result: Ghana wins and Croatia stays at 3 points.
+ Group K
Standings: Colombia 6, Portugal 4, Congo-Kinshasa 1, Uzbekistan 0
Remaining matches: Colombia–Portugal, Congo-Kinshasa–Uzbekistan (Sunday 1:30 a.m.)
Most likely: Congo-Kinshasa beats Uzbekistan and finishes third on 4 points.
Swedish dream result: Congo-Kinshasa loses points.
+ Group J
Standings: Argentina 6, Austria 3, Algeria 3, Jordan 0
Remaining matches: Jordan–Argentina, Algeria–Austria (Sunday 4:00 a.m.)
Most likely: A draw, so that both Algeria and Austria reach 4 points.
Swedish dream result: Algeria or Austria wins.
