The options are few as French President Emmanuel Macron tries to deal with protests that have flared up again over rising prices and the high cost of living.
The weak economy and disagreements in parliament make it difficult to find measures that meet the protesters’ demands. On the other hand, tougher measures risk triggering even more angry and violent protests.
Does it benefit Le Pen?
Calling new parliamentary elections or resigning early is possible for Macron, but highly unlikely. Equally unlikely is a sudden end to the wars in Ukraine and around Iran, which would cause fuel prices to fall and give the economy new hope.
Instead, the situation means that Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN) is increasingly emerging as the favourite in the 2027 presidential election.
The left-wing party LFI and its leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, came out early in support of the protests. This has now led to sharp criticism as demonstrations have turned violent.
Violence strengthens the “party of order”. Traditionally, it is the government. But that is no longer the case. Now it is the RN that is seen as the party of order, political scientist Jérôme Fourquet told the newspaper Le Soir.
May benefit the Social Democrats
On the other hand, if the violence causes left-wing voters to abandon Mélenchon, it will boost Social Democrat Raphaël Glucksmann’s chances of reaching the decisive second round of the presidential election.
In that case, he too would overcome his disadvantage against Le Pen, but is considered to have a significantly better chance than Mélenchon.
That doesn’t stop more and more people elsewhere in the EU from starting to prepare for Le Pen to attend future summits in Brussels.
No longer unthinkable?
Condemnations of her in the past are no longer heard as often. Instead, it is suggested that she may become like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has not been as radical at the EU level as feared. Analysts also point out that France’s high debt makes it difficult for Le Pen to make overly drastic decisions.
On migration, many EU countries have already moved so far to the right that Le Pen is no longer seen as an unthinkable partner. This is evident, for example, when several leaders accuse France’s migration policy of being behind the violence.
“It is perhaps clear to everyone now why Hungary is calling for the strictest possible stance on migration,” Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar wrote on X, for example.
National Rally presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is currently the favourite to win the decisive second round, regardless of which of the other main candidates she faces.
This is the situation according to a survey by the polling institute Ifop conducted on October 17–19:
Le Pen versus Jean-Luc Mélenchon (left-wing party LFI): 68 percent versus 32 percent.
Le Pen versus Raphaël Glucksmann (Social Democratic PP): 57–43
Le Pen versus François Hollande (Social Democratic PS): 59–41
Le Pen versus Gabriel Attal (Liberal RE): 58–42
Le Pen versus Édouard Philippe (Conservative Horizons): 56–44
Source: Ifop.
French President Emmanuel Macron may call new parliamentary elections to try to resolve the difficult domestic political situation. However, this would be heavily criticised by candidates in next year’s presidential election, as it would make it impossible to hold parliamentary elections immediately after the presidential election, as is customary. At least a year must pass between parliamentary elections.
Macron could also choose to resign early. In that case, the post would be temporarily taken over by the speaker of the upper house of parliament, currently conservative former labour minister Gérard Larcher, after which a presidential election would need to be held within about a month.
Ordinary presidential elections are otherwise due to be held on April 18, 2027, with a possible decisive second round on May 2.
