The forecast for emissions this year is 38.2 billion tonnes. Emissions from oil are expected to fall the most (-1.9 percent), as supply is restricted in connection with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US and Israel’s war against Iran.
“A decline in fossil carbon dioxide emissions is encouraging, but a reduction partly driven by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” says Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor at the University of Exeter who led the study.
Favorable weather in China, reduced coal use in the US and the expansion of clean energy are also cited as contributing to the decline.
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