Higher average temperatures and changing weather conditions are drying out soil and vegetation. This, in turn, increases the risk of fires. The problems may also spread to areas that were previously too cold, for example closer to the poles.
In some areas, fire seasons may double in length, putting more animals and plants at risk.
Vulnerable species
"We see that almost 84 percent of the species vulnerable to forest fires will be exposed to a higher risk by the end of this century," says Xiaoye Yang, a researcher at the University of Gothenburg and the study's first author.
In the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers used a scenario developed by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in which emissions neither increase nor decrease drastically until the end of this century. They combined 13 climate models with machine learning to predict how changes in the length of the fire season and the extent of fires will affect wildlife and plants.
Species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable. In Scandinavia, the Alvar's Wren and the Red-footed Fern are among the species that are particularly threatened.
Emissions decide
"The most affected species are concentrated in South America, South Asia and Australia, and a large proportion of them are already threatened. More forest fires could push some of them closer to extinction," says Xiaoye Yang.
In a moderate scenario with a warming of approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the study shows that the global area affected by fires could increase by approximately 9.3 percent.
The researchers also write that measures to limit emissions could reduce the risk of forest fires. Compared to a high-emissions scenario, a future with moderate emissions could reduce the increase in species' vulnerability to forest fires by more than 60 percent.
