Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus of political science, believes that US President Donald Trump, with his threats to unleash "hell" on Iran, had painted himself into a corner and was trying to avoid a disaster at the last moment.
He has avoided the disaster he himself risked.
To describe this as a victory for Trump, Hallenberg believes, is to "turn reality upside down."
What he has accepted is a proposal from Iran, which is Iran's wish list from before the war began. And now he says that is the basis for negotiations.
"Very unclear"
What will be achieved immediately is that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be opened during the two weeks that the ceasefire is in place.
But it is on condition that the ships passing through coordinate with Iran's military. The Americans say they will be helpful, but the whole thing is very unclear, says Jan Hallenberg.
The US-Israeli war against Iran, which began on February 28, has weakened Iran's military capabilities. But Iran has not committed to stopping uranium enrichment. The list of ten points that Iran says will form the basis for negotiations states that the US must accept that Iran can enrich uranium and that the US must lift all sanctions. The US has not confirmed that the list is the basis for negotiations, and President Donald Trump has said that the issue of uranium enrichment will be "taken care of."
Shifting goals
The stated goal of the war has shifted from day to day, notes Dag Blanck, professor of North American studies at Uppsala University. Therefore, it is also difficult to assess whether it has been a success for the United States, he believes.
For me, it's a bit unclear what the difference is compared to how it was before the war started, except that Iran is greatly weakened.
This has been the US's goal ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979, so it must be seen as a success that Iran is weakened, although not defeated, he says.
But the other things that have been talked about, the nuclear weapons program and the Strait of Hormuz that is now to be opened – it was actually open before the war started. So there is probably less success there, says Dag Blanck.
The US has agreed to the following ten points, according to Iran. The US has not confirmed that the list is the basis for negotiations, and President Donald Trump has said that the issue of uranium enrichment will be "taken care of."
+ Not to repeat its "aggression" against Iran
+ Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz
+ That Iran is allowed to enrich uranium
+ Lifting direct sanctions against Iran
+ Lifting indirect sanctions against Iran
+ That all resolutions from the UN Security Council and the international community be withdrawn
+ That all resolutions from the IAEA are withdrawn
+ Paying compensation to Iran
+ Withdrawing US troops from the region
+ Ending the war on all fronts, including against the "Islamic resistance in Lebanon"
