2026 is expected to be a good year for Swedish retail. The reduced food VAT will result in significant volume growth in grocery stores, while stronger household finances are expected to lead to a solid recovery for non-durable goods retailers such as construction, consumer electronics and furniture.
In the third quarter, retail experienced the strongest growth it has seen since 2021. So there is quite a good reason to be optimistic about the future, says William Lindquist.
Bankruptcies are increasing
While the economy is showing many glimmers of hope, unemployment remains high and the number of corporate bankruptcies is expected to remain at a high level in 2026. William Lindquist highlights that many companies have had very low margins for a long period.
There is still a lot of pressure on companies and their profitability, and that in turn creates uncertainty in the entire labor market.
Consumers are also expected to continue to be price conscious, despite spending more on purchases. Among other things, discount retail is expected to continue to grow in the brighter economic situation.
Just because we are now leaving the recession behind us, we are not leaving low prices behind.
The fashion trade is being weighed down
But while a large part of the retail sector is expected to see a clear recovery next year, the fashion sector is slowing down. This is partly due to increased competition from discount players such as Shein and Temu, but also from competition from their own, already sold, goods.
We have a second-hand market in the fashion industry that is very strong, and most of the second-hand trade is done between consumers.
