On Friday, Statistics Sweden (SCB) will release inflation statistics for March. After the clear increase at the beginning of 2025, this month's figure is highly interesting, note several economists who have spoken to TT.
There were quite large surprises at the beginning of the year. If inflation now continues to surprise on the upside, it can create nervousness among the Swedish Central Bank, says Torbjörn Isaksson, chief analyst at Nordea.
Nordea's assessment is that the so-called KPIF inflation (where the effects of mortgage rates have been excluded) will rise to 2.6 percent on an annual basis. This is admittedly lower than the previous month's figure (2.9 percent) but also clearly above the Swedish Central Bank's own forecast (2.3 percent).
For Swedish households, the focus is primarily on food prices. These will not be reported by SCB until another week. But if Nordea's forecast proves correct, prices will now continue to rise clearly, 0.7 percent compared to the previous month and 5.3 percent on an annual basis.
We believe that food prices will continue to rise. 0.7 percent is a significant increase and 5.3 percent is historically so as well. However, far from the nearly 20 percent we saw last year, says Isaksson.
Similar forecast
Swedbank has a similar forecast regarding food prices, and estimates that they will rise 0.75 percent in March.
It's likely that they will rise a bit more, but the big increase is behind us. In the long run, we don't see falling food prices but stable ones, says Andreas Wallström, forecast chief at Swedbank.
According to both Nordea and Swedbank, there are nevertheless future bright spots for households that think that most things in grocery stores have become ridiculously expensive again.
No broad increase
Andreas Wallström notes that the price increase now, unlike in 2022, is not particularly broad. It's only a few items, such as coffee, that have now skyrocketed in price. The strengthening of the Swedish krona against the dollar, for example, is also a positive factor, as is the decrease in price pressure on raw materials.
I think there are reasons to be optimistic about price developments in the long run and they have strengthened in recent months. Moreover, the fact that energy prices are low is a very important thing, says Wallström.
Tobias Österberg/TT
Facts: Inflation
TT
On Friday, Statistics Sweden (SCB) will release inflation figures for March. This is, however, SCB's so-called quick-KPI, with more detailed figures presented the following week.
Nordea's and Swedbank's assessment is that KPI inflation will rise to 0.8 percent on an annual basis.
Both banks believe that the so-called KPIF inflation is expected to be 2.6 percent, i.e. above the Swedish Central Bank's inflation target of 2.0 percent.
