The food price inflation took off at the beginning of the year, and the political debate as well. But in March, the price increase stopped, and the trend holds in April, according to the Food Price Index's statistics among over 40,000 items at the different grocery chains.
For 21 percent of the food items, there were price reductions in April compared to March, as many as there were increases.
Calm ahead
And Ulf Mazur sees no indication of a new surge in food inflation going forward. Dairy products became more expensive at the beginning of the year, and some products have even been reduced in price.
They will likely remain stable over the summer, says Ulf Mazur, referring to the fact that farmers have not received higher payments for their products.
Neither agricultural products such as grains, bread, and similar products should rise significantly in price, according to Mazur. Moreover, the stronger Swedish krona should hold back since around half of all food products are imported.
That's why meat is rising
The real price rocket of late, coffee, which rose by around 40 percent during the month on certain brands and stores, is likely to remain at these levels. Nothing in the raw material prices indicates otherwise at present. The increasingly expensive cocoa (chocolate) also appears to persist.
Beef may possibly become even more expensive, says Ulf Mazur.
One reason is that farmers are getting better paid for milk, which means fewer cows are sent to slaughter. Imported meat has become more expensive as well, according to Mazur, who also still sees more engaged consumers as an important ingredient for stores to compete better.
Consumers are not buying everything as readily as before.
A price-increasing effect is lurking in the background, at least going forward. When producers have to take responsibility for their packaging, that fee will increase.
It will increase prices by around two percent up to 2026, says Ulf Mazur.
On average, food prices have risen by 0.4 percent in a month compared to March. On a yearly basis, compared to April 2024, the price increase stands at 4.0 percent.
Largest price increases per category in April, compared to March and (compared to April 2024 in parentheses):
Coffee, +10.2 percent (+30.1 percent)
Ground beef, +1.7 (+7.9)
Nuts, +1.5 (+5.4)
Beef, +1.4 (+5.3)
Water, +0.7 (+5.0)
Largest price reductions:
Berries, -2.2 percent (+14.2 percent on a yearly basis)
Vegetables, -1.4 (+1.5)
Crème Fraiche & Sour Cream, -1.4 (+5.6)
Soft cheese, -1.0 (-)
Milk and cream, -0.7 (+9.7)
Source: Food Price Index
