When Brazil goes to the polls on October 4, two polarizing politicians will face each other. In one corner is the country's current president, leftist politician Lula da Silva. In the other is Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the country's right-wing nationalist former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison last year for orchestrating a coup attempt after losing the 2022 election.
If Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawyer and senator, wins, he is expected to pardon the former president, who is serving his sentence under house arrest for health reasons.
Flávio is above all an heir to his father, says Fredrik Uggla, an expert on Latin American politics at Uppsala University.
It's the same focus on politics, with an emphasis on tougher crime and issues that resonate with religious voters. It's "Bible, meat, and bullets." The core voters are a coalition of evangelical Christians, gun owners, and large ranchers.
Conflict with stepmother
One challenge for Flávio Bolsonaro is broadening his predominantly male base. His conflict with his father's wife, 44-year-old Michelle Bolsonaro, has hurt support among women and independent voters, according to polls. In July, she resigned from her popular position as head of the women's wing of the Bolsonaro family's Liberal Party, accusing Flávio of "showing her a lack of respect." Flávio Bolsonaro later publicly apologized.
However, Lula da Silva's lead has shrunk, according to a new poll, which gives the 80-year-old president 44 percent of the vote, compared with 39 percent for Bolsonaro.
Lula has been popular, but at the same time many see him as too old. There is concern among voters about crime and rising prices, and that could be a plus for the opposition candidate, says Fredrik Uggla.
Close relationship with Trump
A major issue in the election is Brazil's relationship with the United States. The Bolsonaro family has close ties to Donald Trump, and in May Flávio visited the president at the White House.
In July, the US imposed a 25 percent import tariff on products from Brazil, which has been interpreted as an attempt by Trump to bring about a change of power in Brazil. However, it could have the opposite effect, says Fredrik Uggla.
It has become an issue where Lula has been able to say that he stands up for Brazil's economy, while Bolsonaro has allied himself with the hostile power of the United States.
