When Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine erupted in 2022 and Europe wanted to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas, a number of agreements were instead made with Qatar for other routes for gas imports, via the Strait of Hormuz.
These routes, which have proven fragile and unreliable, are now causing Europe's gas reserves to shrink to historically low levels for the time of year.
Affected by electricity prices on the continent
Other parts of Europe are more directly dependent on gas than Sweden, but even Sweden, which imports gas via Denmark, is affected by continental electricity prices, which in turn are linked to the price of gas.
Above all, it affects household electricity prices this winter, when the market expects prices of over one kroner per kilowatt hour, says Christian Holtz, energy market analyst at the consulting firm Polite Energy.
He cannot say how long the high electricity prices will persist. The market believes that the situation will resolve itself by the following winter, while the risks in world politics seem higher than a couple of years ago.
To get through the winter, Europe is trying as best as possible to replenish its gas reserves from 57 to 90 percent.
It is doubtful whether we will be able to do that. If gas starts flowing from the Middle East again, we can replenish the stocks fairly soon. But if the conflict there drags on, it looks dangerous, says Holtz.
Changed electricity price pattern
The price of electricity now follows a pattern that we have not experienced historically, according to Christian Holtz.
At the same time as gas prices are rising, more and more solar power is being used on the continent, widening the gap in electricity prices in summer and winter.
Now during the summer we often get low or even negative electricity prices in the middle of the day when we have more sun than the system can absorb, while the electricity price can skyrocket in the afternoon and evening when the sun goes down and appliances are turned on to cool rooms.
This summer, the EU launched a new strategy to eventually free Europe from its dependence on gas imports from Qatar and the US. This will be done, among other things, by allowing electricity to power the transport sector and heating properties.
However, we cannot be completely free from gas dependence until the 2040s, says Christian Holtz.
