Fredrik Wesslau, formerly deputy chief of the EU mission in Ukraine and now at the Centre for East European Studies, is sitting in a taxi through Kyiv. Since Tuesday's message from Jeddah – when Ukraine was said to have accepted the US proposal for a ceasefire – the atmosphere in the Ukrainian capital has changed.
People are relieved, above all that the American arms deliveries and sharing of intelligence have started again and that the ball is now in Russia's court. It's a positive atmosphere, says Wesslau over the phone.
The fact that the so-called American proposal is actually a direct copy of the proposal that Ukraine, the UK, and France presented earlier in March about a 30-day ceasefire in the air and at sea – plays a lesser role, he says.
That they call it American puts even more pressure on Russia to actually say yes. Let the US own it – it's better for the process, I believe.
Time to gear up?
The proposal puts Russia in a difficult situation where they now have to make a calculated assessment. On the one hand, Moscow has signaled that they want a ceasefire, on the other hand, the proposal means that the military pressure on Ukraine will ease. Now it remains to be seen how President Putin chooses to respond.
It could be a yes, but then come with additional political demands from Russia to agree to it. Or they say yes, but don't respect the ceasefire. That would be very typical of Russia, says Fredrik Wesslau.
A month-long ceasefire would mean a welcome respite for Ukraine. But also risks – at least if no security guarantees from Europe and the US are given, warns he.
It would mean a very unstable peace – or rather a ceasefire that gives Russia time to gear up and attack again in a few years.
"Breaks all agreements"
Jakob Hedenskog, also a Ukraine analyst at the Centre for East European Studies at UI, is unsure of the US's intentions. Donald Trump sees himself as the "CEO of the company USA" and acts according to what is best for himself, he says.
Therefore, it is unclear how far he is willing to go if Russia now kicks back. Will he insist on moving forward or just say: "I did what I could, they didn't want peace"?
Hedenskog still sees it as fairly likely that Putin will accept the proposed proposal. But Russia traditionally breaks all agreements, he emphasizes.
It's highly likely that there will be many breaches of the ceasefire. The important thing is to get long-term conditions for Ukraine to survive as a sovereign state – and not to ease the pressure on Putin just because he agrees to a 30-day ceasefire.
Ukraine and Russia are to agree on an immediate, 30-day ceasefire that can be extended according to agreement.
The ceasefire primarily applies in the air and at sea.
The statement about the US proposal, which Ukraine has approved, did not provide many details.
For example, nothing is mentioned about the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, nor the possibility of peacekeeping forces that can monitor the ceasefire on site.
On the other hand, it mentions the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children.
