The turns have been many in recent times. Recently, Ukraine approved the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, according to American President Donald Trump. Where the invading power Russia stands on the issue remains to be seen, but the first signals from Moscow have been cautious.
When it comes to sanctions against Russia, the EU and the US have so far been fairly coordinated. When and if sanction relief could become part of a deal is difficult to predict, according to Wannheden.
It's very possible that Russia will demand some kind of relief from sanctions. I assume they're trying to see how much concessions they can get from the US. It seems like Trump is in a hurry to get a ceasefire, Russia is not in a hurry.
As for the ceasefire, discussions have been initiated between the US and Russia without the EU. It has been mentioned that some kind of relief might be included. But we know very little about the discussions, says Wannheden.
Unfortunate
But easing sanctions is not the right way forward, he believes. The US has a particularly important role, due to its influence over the financial system. This means, among other things, that the US can sanction banks in other countries, such as China, that trade with Russia.
It's important for the EU and the US to realize that sanctions are an important lever in future negotiations with Russia.
Relief of sanctions is something one should be very cautious with. It's unfortunate if you give away this lever in exchange for not so much – at worst a fragile ceasefire.
It's rather in the context of a future peace agreement – when one begins to discuss more long-term and sustainable solutions – that one should consider what to do with the sanctions.
300 billion dollars
The frozen Russian reserves amount to nearly 300 billion dollars, mainly located in the EU. Currently, the yield is taken and given as economic support to Ukraine. That Russia wants to get back some of the money is to be expected.
It's European countries that decide. We may have a different view (than the US) on concessions to Russia to get a ceasefire, says Wannheden.
The money could be important in the reconstruction of Ukraine, even though the country is currently in greater need of military capability.
One can seize or confiscate and promise them to Ukraine. It would send a very strong and clear signal if we did that.
