Fighting has been going on at full scale at the border between India and Pakistan since the Indian air strike on Tuesday night. The attack, against Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Jammu and Kashmir, is said to be a response to the terrorist attack on April 22, when 26 people were killed in India-controlled Kashmir. India accuses Pakistan of involvement, which Pakistan denies.
The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has announced that he is "very worried" about the current situation and world leaders are calling for restraint.
Unclear Nuclear Doctrine
Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons. They serve as a deterrent, emphasizes Henrik Chetan Aspengren, researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute. India's doctrine is that they will not be the first to use them. Pakistan has not been as clear.
The idea of deterrence is that you shouldn't really know if nuclear weapons will be used or not. The uncertainty plays a role, but that we would be on the brink of a nuclear war, I consider to be quite unlikely, says Henrik Chetan Aspengren.
A nuclear war with tactical weapons would imply an enormous escalation and diplomatic crisis, according to Aspengren. India and Pakistan have also fought wars before. Most recently during the Kargil conflict in 1999, the year after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons for the first time.
It was not a question of using nuclear weapons in that situation or there were at least no clear threats. There is a possibility of waging a conventional war with conventional forces, says Henrik Chetan Aspengren.
Seeking Balance
He points out that the Indian side has been clear about its targets: a way to show that it is about a response to the terrorist attack on April 22.
The rhetoric is rather that one can plan out and not step up the conflict further.
For Pakistan, it is important to both deny involvement in the terrorist attack and to mark against India. An example is that the country has announced that it has shot down Indian fighter jets. The country wants to show that it has achieved successes, according to Aspengren.
It is also a signal that one may be able to find a balance, where one chooses not to step up but rather highlight what one has achieved.
