The world's most powerful earthquake to date occurred in Chile in 1960. The quake caused tsunami waves that claimed lives as far away as Hawaii and Japan. After the disaster, a warning system for the Pacific Ocean was introduced from the American side.
For the Indian Ocean, there was no such system before 2004, says Björn Lund.
The effects of the 2004 quake and the subsequent tsunami waves were enormous. Nearly 230,000 people lost their lives in one of the worst natural disasters in documented history. A similar event today would, however, likely have much milder consequences:
I think about what happened in Thailand, it was over an hour after the earthquake that the wave reached Thailand. If you had a modern system, even if there was panic, you would have had an hour to get away from the beaches. It would have made an enormous difference, says Björn Lund.
More Warning Systems
According to Lund, there has been a "significant expansion" of warning systems in various ways since the 2004 disaster. The number of measuring stations, modern software, and deep-sea buoys have all been added. Exactly when an earthquake will occur cannot be predicted, but there is good knowledge about which areas are in the risk zone, according to Lund.
When a major earthquake occurs in such an area, a tsunami warning is usually issued directly, before it is known whether a tsunami has occurred or not. In many of these places, it only takes 15-20 minutes for the water wave to reach land.
About 20 minutes after the 2004 earthquake, the water wave reached the Aceh province in Indonesia. Over 167,000 people lost their lives in the country.
More Data
Can you really not predict where and when such a large earthquake will occur?
It's still difficult. There are no algorithms or general methods for predicting earthquakes. More than that, we know which areas will be affected by major earthquakes, we know how long it has been since the last one.
But we have gotten more and more data in recent years. At the same time, there are those within my field who are completely opposed and do not believe that it will ever be possible, as this is such a chaotic system, says Björn Lund.
