Following reports of explosions in the capital, Tehran, Israel announced at 7 a.m. local time in Sweden that it had launched a "preventive attack" against Iran.
In a speech on his Truth Social account, Donald Trump confirmed that the United States was participating in the attack, which has become nationwide.
In the speech, Trump offered immunity to all Iranian soldiers and police officers who lay down their weapons and called on the Iranian people to take power.
The goal is regime change, without a doubt, but research shows there is no clear example that an air campaign alone can lead to regime change, says Anders Persson, associate professor and researcher at Linnaeus University.
Since mid-January, the US has built up its largest military presence in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, including two aircraft carriers. However, a ground invasion is not being considered, according to Persson.
It looks like Trump wants the Iranian people to be his ground troops.
Another lesson from research - from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq - is how difficult it is to control developments in other countries once military operations have begun. Pandora's box is wide open, Persson continues.
“Big toolbox”
What does Iran have to fight back with?
The common expert view is that Iran has been weakened by the war this summer, and the same applies to its proxy network, but it still has a large toolbox at its disposal.
This includes rocket attacks against Israel and American troops in the region, attacks on shipping - and the ability to orchestrate terrorist attacks in other countries.
I am sure that the threat perception in Sweden has increased with Jewish and American targets. The surprise factor is also present on the Iranian side.
Donald Trump's Achilles heel is domestic opinion, which is strongly critical of American military involvement in Iran, according to the political scientist.
That means he has to show success quickly. Otherwise, public opinion will become even more critical and perhaps define his second term. But Trump is looking to take down the big fish here, and go down in history as the one who brought down the mullahs' regime.
Iran, says Persson, would be wise to ensure the conflict becomes protracted.
“Blinking red”
On Friday evening, the mediating country Oman made hopeful statements about a breakthrough in the negotiations between Iran and the United States.
Canceled flights, travel advisories, recalled embassy personnel, troop movements, Israeli silence and Donald Trump, who has aired his discontent, have pointed in the opposite direction.
All indicators have flashed red, says Anders Persson.
Simon Uggla/TT
Background: One year of negotiations
TT
In March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to open new negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. A month later, indirect talks began, but five meetings failed to produce results. Iran announced in June that a third facility would be commissioned.
On June 22, the United States entered the war between Israel and Iran and bombed the three nuclear power plants.
In September, previous UN sanctions against Iran were reimposed. The economy deteriorated and popular protests erupted across the country before the turn of the year. The US suspended contacts with Iran and Trump said he was prepared to intervene on the side of the protesters when thousands were killed, but this did not happen.
At the end of January, US military forces began to gather in Iran's vicinity on an unusually large scale. New negotiations began on February 3.
