When EU countries' heads of state and government hold an extraordinary defense and Ukraine summit in Brussels, it is described as a "historic turning point".
Broad support is expected for "Upprusta EU" – the EU Commission's plan from Tuesday, hoping to inject nearly 9 billion Swedish kronor (800 billion euros) into defense.
Saying yes is not that complicated. So far, it comes without obligations. The staggering sum is largely based on a big "if": that all member states actually utilize relaxed budget rules to increase their defense spending by 1.5 percent of their GDP.
Stretching the rules
The turning point is still clear. Germany has already signaled quick decisions to double its defense budget. The EU Commission's plan also includes 150 billion euros in favorable EU loans for defense investments for countries that cannot borrow so cheaply.
Everything is done with a certain stretching of EU rules where the defense industry can suddenly be seen as regional support and money for weapon purchases is masked as support for joint procurement.
It's not about buying weapons off the shelves, emphasizes a senior EU source ahead of the summit.
The European Investment Bank is doing its part with promises to further relax its rules as early as March, so that things that cannot be supported with EIB money become "as limited as possible", writes CEO Nadia Calviño in a letter to EU leaders.
Loans and budget
Even more is expected further ahead. In two weeks, the EU Commission will present a promised white paper on future defense. This includes, among other things, pointers on which military capabilities EU countries lack and should invest in jointly.
The pressure is also still heavy on the EU Commission to come up with even more money, for example through joint defense bonds.
How much to invest in security and defense will also be a heavy question when the Commission presents its proposal for a new long-term budget in the summer, at least until 2032.
On its own?
Much of it is about clearly showing both the USA and Russia – and its own population – that Europe can defend itself on its own.
No one can longer ignore investing in weapons and ammunition, even if there are still hopes that the USA will become like before again.
Defense spending is becoming a fixed cost again. Every day you have to pay for ammunition, for several years, until Trump is dead, as an EU diplomat puts it to news site Politico Europe.
The EU Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen has presented a five-point plan, dubbed "Upprusta EU".
The plan includes relaxing EU budget rules so that countries do not have to risk fines and austerity measures for investments and loans for defense.
The Commission also proposes a new EU fund where 150 billion euros are opened up for loans that member states can use for joint investments in, for example, air defense, artillery, drones, and ammunition.
Point three is that EU countries get the opportunity to use regional support funds for defense purposes, while points four and five deal with getting more private money into defense through the European Investment Bank, EIB, and accelerating EU's savings and investment union.
