ECB cuts interest rate – euro falls

The European Central Bank (ECB) is lowering its interest rates and is also revising its forecasts for growth and inflation downwards. In the interest rate decision, a key phrase about monetary policy being "restrictive" is removed, which causes the euro to fall slightly.

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ECB cuts interest rate – euro falls
Photo: Michael Probst AP/TT

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The repo rates are being lowered by 25 points (0.25 percentage units). The so-called deposit rate is thus being lowered to 3.00 percent.

The announcement is in line with the average forecast among analysts, according to a compilation made by the news agency Bloomberg.

The euro falls slightly after the interest rate announcement, as the ECB has adjusted certain formulations.

Among other things, the ECB has removed a formulation where it previously stated that monetary policy would be "sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary".

According to the ECB, the disinflation process is on the right track, and the bank's board of directors chooses not to provide any forecast for future interest rate cuts.

However, the market expects further cuts to the repo rates going forward. Among economists, the average forecast is for cuts down to 2.00 percent by 2025, while the probability in the pricing on the interest rate market points to the ECB going even further and cutting to 1.75 percent.

The ECB's economists are lowering their forecasts for inflation and growth, both for this year and next year in Thursday's interest rate announcement. Growth in the eurozone this year is expected to remain at 0.7 percent, down from 0.8 percent in the previous forecast.

For 2025, the ECB's economists expect growth of 1.1 percent, down from 1.3 percent previously. Growth is also being revised down for 2026, to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent.

They are also adjusting the inflation forecast, to 2.4 percent this year, down from 2.5 percent. For 2025, the inflation forecast is being lowered to 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent, while it remains at 1.9 percent for 2026.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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