Despite increased imports from countries such as Canada, Nigeria, South Korea and the United States, Europe faces a large deficit of jet fuel this fall, Reuters reports, citing the consulting firm Energy Aspects (EA).
Stocks at seven-year low
Jet fuel stocks in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp were at their lowest levels in seven years in the week ending September 10. EA is reporting a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year.
If we are heading towards that situation, I think we will see it in the prices, that they will go up. It may also be the case again that the airlines themselves cancel flights because jet fuel is so expensive, says Rebecka Bergholtz, market analyst at the Swedish Energy Agency.
She describes the global oil market as "very stressed" due to the situation in the Middle East, but reminds us that the peak season for the use of aviation fuel has passed.
But Sweden has some protective barriers, according to Bergholtz. She points out that the national emergency stocks - which cover 90 days of consumption of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil - remain.
"We can carry out stock withdrawals if necessary. We have not done so yet, but we are of course ready to do so if the situation requires it," she says.
In addition, the oil we use mostly comes from the North Sea, while we have our own refining capacity in the Nordic region.
Increased oil traffic through Hormuz
In addition to airline tickets, air freight could also become more expensive if the supply shortages that EA warns of materialize, according to Bergholtz.
Globally, prices for oil products and fossil gas have surged in September, partly due to attacks on Saudi facilities by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen and other supply disruptions in the region.
US Admiral Brad Cooper said in a statement over the weekend that the volume of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks has actually increased to its highest level in six months. However, the flow to the world market is also limited by the US - as part of its warfare in the Middle East - blocking Iranian oil shipments through the strait.
