According to the ECB, the upward pressure on prices in the euro countries has eased and wage increases have decreased in strength, while the economy as a whole has shown signs of resilience. The bank adds that the situation is very uncertain, especially due to ongoing trade conflicts.
Many analysts expect the ECB, with Thursday's announcement of unchanged interest rates, has only taken a pause and will likely lower the key interest rates again in September - when inflation in the euro countries is expected to be on its way down and the euro has risen unusually much against the dollar this year.
In the interest rate decision, the ECB confirms its line that future interest rate decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on how incoming data develops.
In the bond market, the reaction is moderate. The pricing still points with great probability to an interest rate cut in September. And the yield on a ten-year German government bond climbs cautiously upwards, plus 0.03 percentage points.
The euro, which fell 0.1 percent in the hours leading up to the interest rate decision, is virtually unchanged against the dollar after the interest rate decision.
The European Central Bank's interest rate decision affects the scope for the Swedish Central Bank to adjust its key interest rate, which in turn has major effects on the development of interest rates when it comes to mortgages and other credits to Swedish households and companies.
Also, the Swedish Central Bank is expected, according to many analysts and the pricing on the bond market, to lower the key interest rate from today's 2 percent to 1.75 percent during the second half of 2025. This can increase the downward pressure on variable mortgage rates for Swedish households.
If the interest rate on a mortgage of three million kronor falls by 0.25 percentage points, it reduces the interest cost of the loan by 7,500 kronor per year, if one disregards the effects of the interest deduction.
