Earth’s Frozen Regions Have Exceeded Their Safe Limits, Scientists Warn

Scientists have long known that the cryosphere, the frozen parts of the Earth, is important to the climate system, but it has been difficult to monitor.

A new study led by Swedish researchers draws on the latest research in the field and concludes that the cryosphere has exceeded what is known as its safe operating range within the planetary boundaries.

We have left behind the environmental framework that is absolutely fundamental to human societies - the basic conditions that once made it possible for civilisation to establish itself, says Lan Wang-Erlandsson, co-author and researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Faster than average

The cryosphere is currently warming much faster than the Earth as a whole. In recent years, we have seen the thaw accelerate and its consequences become clear. Lan Wang-Erlandsson cites the permafrost closest to the North Pole as an example.

You could say that it is the Earth's freezer, where thousands of years of accumulated organic carbon are stored. When it thaws, carbon dioxide is released, and if it goes underwater, oxygen levels drop. In conditions of oxygen deficiency, methane is formed, which in turn accelerates warming.

For parts of the cryosphere, scientists fear that we may already have passed so-called tipping points, beyond which it is no longer possible to reverse the trend.

Uncompromising negotiator

The loss of the frozen areas is mainly driven by human-caused climate change. According to the scientists, drastic emissions cuts are now urgently needed. Lan Wang-Erlandsson compares the cryosphere to an uncompromising negotiator.

It matches our emissions. If you see it as a party to the negotiations, it simply says: “If you emit more, we will also emit more. But if you emit less, we will also do that.”

She adds that the cryosphere also has a series of “wild cards” to play that we don’t really know what they are or when they will come, only that they are affected by our emissions.

A further complication is that the climate system has inertia, meaning that future changes are already “locked in” and cannot be influenced. This further reduces the room for action.

A great deal of the ice and permafrost that has been lost cannot be regained in the foreseeable future - and that makes it particularly urgent to act.