The Bloomberg news agency has reviewed developments on the New York Stock Exchange since the Iran war began on February 28. The pattern is clear, prices rise Monday-Wednesday and fall back Thursday-Friday.
The same applies to the Stockholm Stock Exchange, according to TT's quick analysis.
"It is a clear weekly pattern," says Danske Bank's chief economist Susanne Spector.
Leaving risk for the weekend
The explanation is easy to understand, according to stock experts. With frequent statements about the war in the Middle East from US President Donald Trump, often during weekends, stock speculators do not want to hold risky positions when the stock markets are closed.
"It's a difficult situation to assess. Many people are trading on headlines and statements. There are usually positive statements from the Trump administration at the beginning of the week, which de-escalate the situation. Then they don't materialize during the week," says Susanne Spector.
This causes stock markets to first rise, then fall back.
"We have also seen escalations on weekends on several occasions. That is why we want to reduce risk before the weekend," says Spector.
Afraid to miss out
The sharp rises in between, usually early in the week, are related to the famous term FOMO (fear of missing out).
"The market reaction is more about people being afraid of missing out on the upside when this resolves itself than about the risk of a really difficult scenario," says Spector.
This week is no exception. Monday-Wednesday saw gains of 4-5 percent on positive peace statements. But just before lunchtime on Thursday, the Stockholm Stock Exchange was down more than 1 percent after Trump's speech to the nation that night, a speech about developments in Iran that did not appeal to financial markets.
Now four days of stock market closures await in Stockholm.
