DNB Carnegie expects economic growth of 2.2 percent for 2026 and 2.3 percent for 2027. It is driven primarily by increased household consumption.
In parallel with household consumption, investments in Sweden are also increasing, both in the public and private sectors. This will continue for many years in areas such as defence, energy investments and infrastructure, says the bank's chief economist Ulf Andersson.
An inflationary lift
This in turn will boost inflation, and DNB Carnegie continues to expect three interest rate hikes to 2.50 percent by the end of 2027. However, there is no significant strengthening of the Swedish krona at the moment. The assessment is that over the next twelve months, one euro will cost 10.80 kronor, compared with today's 11.03 kronor.
This is at the same time as the krona strengthens slightly against the dollar, from the current 9.53 to 9.23 kronor.
"The strong strengthening of the krona that took place last year went too far, we believe. The krona was simply too strong," says Ulf Andersson.
The dollar is strong
The fact that the US dollar is now so strong against the krona is related to the development of the American economy.
We continue to have a fairly positive view of the American economy, says Ulf Andersson, highlighting, among other things, the success of American technology companies in the wake of AI development.
We do not see the strong attraction that the US has for foreign investment reversing anytime soon. There is political uncertainty in the US, but there is also in Europe.
