This year's meeting begins on Monday with a global review of the Paris Agreement and its goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees. A goal that increasingly looks impossible to achieve.
The meeting has been described as a "mid-year COP" because there are no clear deadlines for the major decisions that must be made. But according to Martin Wadmark at WWF, this is for better or worse.
If there are not such great expectations, progress can be made where there is least resistance. But it could also mean that the negotiation situation becomes deadlocked.
According to Mattias Frumerie, Sweden's climate ambassador and chief negotiator, much of the important work will be discussed outside the agenda. He mentions, among other things, the countries' climate action plans.
Fossil-free in headwinds
Previously, an alliance of countries with the ambition to push for the phasing out of fossil fuels has been formed. It has no formal say in the negotiations, and the steps towards a fossil-free future will be small, if any, believes Mathias Fridahl, an expert on climate policy and professor at Linköping University.
I believe that we must approach this issue indirectly by highlighting the alternatives that can allow us to create growth and health.
One alternative is electrification, which is highlighted by the host countries, Turkey and Australia - both of which continue to invest in coal mining and coal-fired power.
At the same time, the future of the UN's work programme for emission reductions (MWP) is uncertain. The programme was hammered out at COP27 in Egypt in 2022, and now that its five-year mandate is expiring, an extension has met with strong resistance from oil-producing countries.
On the guest list
Brazil's recently re-elected President Lula da Silva has announced that he will attend this year's meeting, but otherwise few world leaders are expected at COP31.
Given where we stand in the climate transition, it is worrying that it is not given more space in the debate, says Mathias Fridahl.
At COP27, it was decided to establish a fund for loss and damage, through which poorer countries that fall victim to extreme weather exacerbated by emissions from richer countries will be compensated. But who will pay and how much is not clear.
Mattias Frumerie points to financing as a key issue.
At COP30, it was decided to triple financing for climate adaptation, and many developing countries want clarity on how this will work, he says.
This year, two countries are hosting - Turkey and Australia. Turkey is organizing the meeting, while Australia holds the presidency and leads the negotiation work.
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