Lukashenko has done a lot to worsen the relationship with the West, says Sofie Bedford, researcher at the Institute for Russia and Eurasian Studies (Ires) at Uppsala University, who refers, among other things, to when he in 2021 pushed refugees across the border to the EU and under dramatic circumstances forced down a Ryanair plane that passed through the country's airspace.
Now that about a dozen people – including opposition politician Sergei Tikhanovsky and Swedish citizen Halina Krasnyanskaya – have been released from prison, it may be an attempt to thaw the relationship with the US and the EU, according to Bedford. That it happens now may be due to the fact that an American delegation has just visited the country.
”Pretty hopeful”
Can other political prisoners feel hopefulness?
I do not know, but it feels like a good first step anyway. I think you should see it as pretty hopeful. That he releases people must mean that he is in some kind of negotiating position.
That Lukashenko is turning to the West is, however, not usually seen with kind eyes by Russia.
Last time it happened, Russia started threatening with various types of sanctions against Belarus. But now one could also think that Russia has too much to deal with with its own problems.
Find balance between East and West
Speaking of Russian problems, another theory is that Lukashenko believes in an impending ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Then perhaps Lukashenko cannot put all his eggs in Russia's basket, but must find his way back to a position where he can stand and weigh between the West and Russia.
If one is to interpret Lukashenko's turn ”very positively”, perhaps Sergei Tikhanovsky's wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who has taken over the role of opposition leader, ”began to become too successful in her crusade against the Belarusian leader in Western countries”.
I hope that Tikhanovskaya is not silenced by this. But maybe there is something like that in this agreement when her husband was released: that she should keep a lower profile.
