This analysis is by Isabell Schierenbeck, a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, following the publication of polling station surveys by the largest television companies on Tuesday evening.
If you compare the election results with 2022, Netanyahu's bloc is going backwards significantly. Then a majority government with 64 seats was formed, she says.
In the ongoing vote count, Netanyahu's side now has around 55 seats after Tuesday's election.
When it comes to the religious Zionist parties, such as Bezalel Smotrich's party, it seems that voters have stayed home or that their votes have gone to (Netanyahu's) Likud.
Dead heat
The election in Israel has been described as the most important in the country's history and a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
As it stands, with over half of the votes counted, Netanyahu's side is still stronger than the so-called opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. But neither of the two blocs is close to the 61 seats required for a majority in the Knesset.
If the trend holds, two Arab parties - which are not part of either bloc - could gain considerable influence.
In some areas of southern Israel, where many identify as Palestinian, voter turnout has risen to almost 20 percent. This is a major success and could increase the chances that opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot will choose to cooperate with the parties, says Schierenbeck.
Want to influence
At the same time, some opposition parties oppose both active and passive cooperation with the two parties, the Joint List and Ra'am.
The Joint List has said in advance that it does not want to sit in an Israeli government, but that it would consider supporting one if it were formed by the opposition. It has signaled quite strongly that it now wants to influence politics, not least because it has been hit so hard by Ben Gvir's (Israeli Minister of National Security) policies.
Schierenbeck emphasizes that it is less likely that any of the Arab parties would actively support Netanyahu's bloc, but it is not certain that they will have the final say.
A coalition government that includes both Likud and Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot's party) has previously been discussed.
The president (Isaac Herzog) has been out there saying that it would be good to have something that unites the country. At the same time, it has really been an election about Netanyahu, so the question is how Eisenkot and his voters will react to that.
