Since the attacks began on February 28, the United States and Israel have struck 10,000 targets in Iran, the US military command CENTCOM said on Thursday.
The attacks have caused significant losses for Tehran. But at the same time, Washington and Tel Aviv have expended significant amounts of ammunition. A report published by the British think tank RUSI earlier this week estimates that stocks of several different weapons systems are running low.
Defensive capability critical
When it comes to offensive weapons, there is a certain amount of flexibility if a specific type is no longer available, according to Andreas Hörnedal, research leader and air defense expert at the Swedish National Defense Research Institute (FOI).
There is a higher degree of flexibility there. For example, you can decide to skimp on certain types if there is a need for it, he says.
On the defensive side, things look different. According to the report's authors, Israel, which has denied previous reports of ammunition shortages, looks set to run out of two Arrow models, as well as ammunition used for the so-called David's Sling, in the coming days and weeks.
Both are used in the country's air defense system.
"This is typically used against ballistic missiles that have a slightly longer range. If they run out of this protection, it is likely to affect both Israel's civilian population and military targets," says Hörnedal.
Negotiating position may be affected
What Iran's stockpile of missiles and drones looks like is difficult to determine, but Andreas Hörnedal highlights that the country has been preparing for the scenario that is now unfolding for a long time.
You can say what you want about the regime, but Iran is not Afghanistan. It has a fairly advanced military force in some respects.
He also points out that the RUSI report is based on models and rough estimates, which should be taken into account in the analysis. However, if the US-Israeli defense capabilities were to weaken, this could have consequences for the balance between the parties.
It is clear that Iran will then have the opportunity to simply exert pressure on Israel and the US. And they will have a stronger negotiating position.
