Anxiety about AI is spreading in Sweden. Analysts and reports warn that the technology will take over in various professions.
But it remains to be seen when, and whether, that shift will show up in the statistics.
So far in Sweden, we have not seen any signs that the use of AI is associated with any major impact on employment or unemployment overall, says Magnus Lodefalk, associate professor of economics at Örebro University.
The Swedish Public Employment Service and Statistics Sweden (SCB), which are responsible for labor market figures, have no data showing how AI has affected jobs in Sweden.
Several statisticians and academics are instead looking to the recent report “Structural Transformation and AI”, published by Uppsala University and Tillväxtanalys.
No signs of transformation
"No clear signs of a comprehensive AI-driven structural transformation can yet be observed in the overall economy," the authors write.
Where we see certain changes that could be due to AI, it is primarily among recent university graduates, says Oskar Nordström Skans, one of the report's authors.
This is particularly true of degree programs leading to professions where AI is widely used, such as programming.
Whether it is exactly related to AI or not, we can leave it unsaid, but it is consistent with the picture that AI creates problems for those entering jobs where AI can be used to perform certain tasks that have historically been done by recent graduates, he says.
New jobs are emerging
At the same time, there are positive aspects. AI has given rise to a number of new job titles.
A new technology like AI can automate certain tasks, but then it can create new tasks that were not there before. This can lead to completely new professions in the long term, says Magnus Lodefalk.
During the year, positions have been advertised for coordinators in the Police Authority's AI group, AI service developers at Landskrona Municipality and AI researchers at telecom manufacturer Ericsson.
There have also been several jobs to apply for, for example, in SVT's newly started AI and automation team.
Tug of war will decide
The impact on the labor market will depend on whether AI creates more or fewer new jobs than the jobs it replaces.
These two things have been well balanced historically, and of course it can be that way going forward as well, says Nordström Skans.
But there is a scenario that causes concern - that the negative aspect wins the tug of war.
That would be if AI is so useful and takes hold so quickly that new jobs do not have time to emerge at the same rate as others disappear. No one knows exactly how it will turn out.
Are there safe jobs for the future
The rise of AI is making educational choices more difficult for many young people.
But there are safe alternatives for those who want to avoid having to deal with technology in the future.
Oskar Nordström Skans, professor of economics at Uppsala University.
If you are very afraid of uncertainty, there are some safe bets. There are practical vocational courses at high school where AI plays a very marginal role, says Nordström Skans, adding that there are also safe bets at universities.
It is quite clear that healthcare professions are in huge demand - everything from doctors to home care.
The risk is greater for journalists, researchers and engineers.
AI can do everything that involves processing text, numbers, images and the like. That's where working life will almost certainly be greatly affected - and where you can imagine that it will be harder to find a job, but we don't know.
Study further?
Mats Alvesson, professor of business administration at Lund University, points out that the jobs of the future do not necessarily require further study.
Craftsmanship jobs, elderly care, the transport industry, cleaning jobs and healthcare professions. Most of these will remain, and are in some sense the jobs of the future, he says, adding that even those who are good at AI will probably have good future prospects.
The question is whether it will be worthwhile to study further.
Sometimes humanities education is quite cheap with few resources and a relatively low level of requirements. It can be a bit lax and then you may not be able to count on getting any greater dividends from it, says Alvesson.
Uppsala professor Nordström Skans is more optimistic.
Technology will create greater uncertainty about how the labor market will develop. But I believe there will continue to be demand for the skills that universities provide, he says.
What do you think?