Who really has the upper hand in the war?
Sir Alex Younger, former head of the British intelligence service MI6,
him:Iran.
"The truth is that the US underestimated the task and lost the ability to act against Iran two weeks ago. In practice, the Iranian regime has proven to be more resilient than I think anyone expected," he continues.
When the US, together with Israel, launched attacks on Iran about a month ago, it was portrayed as an easy mission. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be killed on day one, then regime change would occur and the US would emerge victorious from the war after four to five weeks.
But now that the deadline has passed, more and more factors point to a disadvantage for the United States.
American knowledge deficit
Despite regular – and successful – attacks on Iran’s navy, missile factories and leadership, Iran manages to remain a threat big enough in the region to drive up fuel prices and cause global economic unrest. US diplomatic relations in the region are being strained by Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states, which have been forced to realize that the US would rather use its air defenses to protect Israel than them. And at home, voters are irritated by the fact that the war, which many consider unnecessary, is causing higher living costs.
If decision-making circles in the US had been more knowledgeable about Iran, they would have understood that the Iranian regime had been preparing for this for 30–40 years, says Peter Haldén, associate professor of military science.
In Tehran, the regime has, at least outwardly, dismissed the idea of negotiations with the United States, which it says started the war despite reports of progress in diplomatic talks regarding Iran's nuclear program.
“Just as good as pulling”
And the mere fact that Trump has opened the door to a ceasefire plays into the Iranians' hands.
It doesn't directly instill fear in the opponent, Haldén says.
According to him, there are two ways forward for the US. One is to escalate significantly, which may be ineffective against an opponent who sees the war as existential.
The other option is to paint the achieved military successes as a victory, and instead of forcing the Iranians into surrender, return in a few years to once again destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.
"And if we have now started to signal that we want to withdraw from here, then it is just as well to withdraw from there sooner rather than later."
