Several military bases have been attacked, and more than 40 Russian bomber planes have been hit, according to Ukrainian reports. Elfving believes that the attacks have taken place.
It's possible to discuss the Ukrainian report that about 40 planes were knocked out, he says.
The attacks are said to have been planned for a year and a half. The drones are said to have been smuggled into Russia, to later be fired remotely and controlled from a distance towards the targets. It's not impossible that they managed to cross the Russian border, according to Elfving.
In some places, it's not particularly well-guarded. Moreover, corruption is widespread in Russia, so greasing someone in the border guard to get this through, that's also a possibility.
"No airbase is safe"
The attacks are, apart from the number of attacks, also unique in that they have reached so far into Russia, including an airbase in Siberia, which is more than 4,000 kilometers from the border between Russia and Ukraine.
From a Russian perspective, no Russian airbase is safe, says Elfving.
He believes that ordinary Russians after the attacks will start wondering how good the Russian security measures really are – but since they have already been pointed out as terrorist attacks in Russia, that's the image that will prevail. Similar thoughts can also come to pass in the military ranks.
From a purely professional perspective, I do not rule out that there are those in the Russian military who, due to this, question their own ability, and perhaps are even impressed by what Ukraine has achieved. Then it's also likely that it will evoke feelings and demands for retaliation.
Can leave peace process
Elfving believes that Russia will act as the country usually does when Ukraine has succeeded with a major attack – with a clear retaliatory attack in the form of intensified missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. Most likely, it will also happen within the next 24 hours.
The Ukrainian attacks can also affect the peace process, says Elfving.
My understanding is that Russia is not interested in a peaceful end to the conflict, but wants to resolve it militarily. And here, one has now actually got an opportunity – based on what one calls Ukrainian terrorist attacks and Ukrainian reluctance towards peace – to withdraw from the peace process.
