Magnus Christiansson doubts that Trump even has a ready-made plan for what will happen to Venezuela now.
If a previous administration had done this, I would have expected that the next step in the political solution would have been thought out, but when it comes to the Trump administration, I'm not nearly as sure.
Trump says he sees a “legal transition of power” ahead. But according to Christiansson, a democratic process in Venezuela could even stand in the way of the United States’ goals.
If it gets really messy with internal fighting, this could be a nightmare for the Americans. It's about gaining control over the flow of migration and getting access to oil contracts. So the question is how much freedom can you really afford.
“Don’t understand”
The fact that Maduro is an authoritarian leader on the left is actually unimportant, because Trump cares neither about government nor ideology, according to Magnus Christiansson.
I think you should see this in terms of spheres of interest. I don't think Trump really understands what democracy is, and I don't think ideological color plays that big of a role.
US interference in Venezuela could also be bad news for NATO, Ukraine and the Middle East.
Trump has put himself in the driver's seat when it comes to the conflict in Gaza, the conflict in Ukraine and the bombing of Iran. Now comes another incredibly heavy question. I think this will make other things less interesting.
Eyes on Cuba
Now Cuba could be next in line. Since the 1960s, there has been a consensus not to try to overthrow the communist regime directly, but given Trump's new-fangled great power policy in the Western Hemisphere, Havana could very well become a target, especially if the effort against Venezuela is considered successful, Christiansson believes.
Greenland is also mentioned as a possible military target, but Christiansson does not believe that Congress would accept breaking alliance obligations to Denmark and NATO, even though the island is already the subject of an influence operation.
Some tougher measures from Sweden and other Western countries are likely to follow.
"Somewhere there is a red line that even the EU or other European countries must mark. But so far they have played a game where they are trying to flatter Trump rather than criticize him," says Christiansson.
