The developments in Iran have also affected the fixed-income market. On Thursday the Swedish Central Bank will issue a new interest rate decision, at which no change is expected, but markets are now pricing in an interest-rate increase this year.
This increase is expected to be followed by another in 2027. If both occur, it would mean a policy rate of 2.25 percent.
Difficult to time
This would in turn mean that the interest cost for a loan of three million kronor would be 15,000 kronor more per year (if the effects of the interest deduction are ignored). However, timing developments in the interest market as a mortgage borrower is extremely difficult, points out Christina Sahlberg, savings economist at Skandiabanken:
"Especially now, when geopolitics affects expectations from one week to the next. We have seen how quickly the market has swung since the war in Iran - from previously expecting cuts to now pricing in new increases. It shows how uncertain the interest-rate situation is both in the short and long term," she writes in a comment to TT.
Relatively close
In February, before the outbreak of the war, average interest rates for variable loans and one-year fixed-term loans were relatively close to each other. A few lenders even had lower average interest rates on one-year fixed-rate loans, according to the comparison site Compricer.
However, everyone should consider their own financial situation, Christina Sahlberg points out:
"I don't think you should try to guess where interest rates are going when deciding on a fixed or variable mortgage rate, but instead start from your own personal finances and your own security. Anyone who wants stable and predictable housing costs can consider locking in a fixed-rate mortgage. Anyone who has margins and can handle fluctuations can continue with a variable rate," she writes.
Christina Sahlberg's tip is to look at the average interest rates - that is, what customers have actually received - instead of the official list interest rate:
"It's important to know that your bank may offer temporary interest-rate discounts that expire after a period of time. This could mean you pay more than you should for your loan," she writes.
