Influential criminals are released from prison and the shootings increase. At the same time, children on summer vacation can become an easy target for gangs recruiting for new violent crimes, warns the police.
It's a risky cocktail, says intelligence chief Jale Poljarevius.
During the first five months of the year, 105 shootings occurred in Sweden, a 30 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. But something has happened.
According to police figures, 19 shootings took place during the first two weeks of June. Since then, there have been an additional 19 shootings, according to the magazine Kvartal's database.
It remains extremely fragile. We saw tendencies in February and March, then it died out. Now we're seeing tendencies again. We'll see if it continues or if it subsides, says Jale Poljarevius, intelligence chief in police region Mitt, and notes that violence historically escalates during the summer.
The police are warning that children on summer vacation, in the absence of the school's safety net and parents who have to work, are vulnerable to gangs' hunt for new shooters.
Encrochat
Kvartal has reported that many of the over 150 people convicted of violent or weapons offenses with evidence from the encrypted chat services Encrochat, Sky ECC, and Anom have already been released or will be released soon.
In some areas, a large number of influential criminals disappeared at once. When they are released and want to re-establish themselves, there are great risks – especially during the summer, according to Poljarevius.
Some have been released in our region, which is alarming.
In Västsverige, Encro-convicted individuals have also been released, but there is no immediate concern about that particular group. When influential actors are released, the same analysis always takes place, says Jens Ahlstrand, intelligence chief in police region Väst.
We look at what area they come from, how important they are, what conflicts they had with them in the past, and if they have the intention of acting on them.
Traveling to home countries
In southern Sweden, many convictions have concerned drug offenses rather than violent and weapons offenses, says intelligence chief Mats Karlsson. He also believes that previous experiences have made the region better prepared.
I want to claim that we already had a better ability to follow conflicts and central individuals before Encrochat compared to many others.
In region Syd, the police have for many years noted another summer trend: that the criminals' vacation plans have a significant impact on the level of violence.
Some of them, who have origins in other countries, travel there during the summer. Then we notice a big difference, a greater calm, in our vulnerable areas. Other years when they are in Sweden, they become more turbulent.
