When Russia's highest military officer, Chief of the General Staff Valerij Gerasimov, visited Russian fortifications along the front line in Ukraine during the week, he claimed that Russia is "advancing in almost all directions".
The statement follows several similar claims from the Kremlin recently that the Russian army is achieving great successes in the offensive war against Ukraine.
A review in Kyiv Independent gives a different picture. According to the newspaper, Russia has failed to break through the Ukrainian defense lines and has not conquered a single major city during the summer months.
The newspaper writes that the Russian army has captured less than one percent of the remaining Ukrainian territory since November 2022 – despite three major offensives during the spring and summer against Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy.
”Moved slowly”
The picture is confirmed by Johan Norberg, Russia expert and research leader at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI).
The front lines have moved very slowly. Russia's successes have been at the municipal level, but it is important for Russia that it looks like it is on the offensive.
One does not have a front line, but a front zone that can be between 10 and 30 kilometers wide. The positions are not moved very much in those areas.
He means that the Russian rhetoric about successes is a deliberate strategy.
It is not the success on the battlefield that is important, but the image of success. They want to secure continued support for the war from the Russian public, but also convince the West that the war is going well for Russia so that support for Ukraine decreases.
”Important signal”
In an interview with Sky News on Tuesday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyj said that he is "really pleased" that the last three Russian offensives have failed.
In my perspective, it sends an important signal. They have suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment.
I think it's going much worse for the Russians than they expected, and they're not telling how bad it's going for Putin. He doesn't know how bad it's going. The Russians will not be able to take our eastern region.
He adds that Russia is planning two major offensives for the autumn.
