Inflation expectations rise in the shadow of war

In a year's time, participants in the fixed-income and foreign-exchange markets expect inflation, according to the Swedish Central Bank's measure CPIF, to reach 1.7 percent. In the March survey, the figure was 1.5 percent.

In the slightly longer term, at the two- and five-year horizons, inflation expectations are relatively stable at just over 2 percent.

However, interest rate participants have not updated their forecast for the Swedish Central Bank's policy rate. That assessment remains unchanged on average at 1.8 percent in three months and 1.9 percent in 12 months. Today, the policy rate is 1.75 percent.

Inflation expectations are a kind of confidence barometer for the Swedish Central Bank's inflation target of 2 percent.