Last week, an arms manufacturer in Estonia was the target of an arson attack. Russian involvement is a “very, very real scenario,” according to Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur.
In recent weeks, the governments of the Baltic states and Poland have raised the alarm that Russia wants to escalate provocations. The Russians are constantly trying to find out where the line is drawn - how high the threshold is for NATO's Article Five, Pevkur tells TT.
But we also have to stay calm so we can distinguish between a real military attack, where we really need to activate NATO's Article Four or Five, and Russia poking at us, testing how we react and whether we get nervous.
Warning before the election
According to intelligence leaks, there are fears of stealth attacks on a larger scale, but also more obvious border violations.
Russia wants to shake up countries so that they reconsider their support for Ukraine, believes Hanno Pevkur, who is warning ahead of upcoming elections.
Sweden has elections in a few weeks, Latvia has elections in October and Estonia in March. We are entering a period of six to eight months when threats in our region will increase.
They are constantly looking for people who are willing to help, even in Sweden, warns the minister.
Russian provocations are also believed to be intended to test NATO, for example if the US hesitates in a critical situation. Pevkur says he trusts Estonia's strongest ally.
Help from Ukraine?
One of the Baltic states' most experienced politicians is not so sure. Dalia Grybauskaite, former Lithuanian president and EU commissioner, doubts that the US will send more troops if the situation worsens. She describes NATO's Article 5 as more of an "invitation" to help.
The Nordic and Baltic countries need to deepen military cooperation in the region with regional agreements, the Lithuanian believes.
"The most important thing we need from the US is intelligence. When it comes to defense on the ground, it should be our own, that of our closest friends, and also that of the Ukrainians," says Grybauskaite.
If there is a direct war with Russia, I am convinced that Ukraine will come and help us.
“Don’t overreact”
As president, Dalia Grybauskaite sounded the alarm early on about Russia's intentions, especially after a tense meeting with Vladimir Putin in 2010. He had a list of demands for Lithuania. She said no.
From a desperate and imperialistic neighbour, we can be exposed to any kind of provocation, but it is about our own endurance, our courage and our reaction. Not to overreact, and to believe in our own defence capabilities.
The fifth article of the NATO treaty is usually seen as the cornerstone of the military alliance: an attack on one member state constitutes an attack on all 32. It is worded as follows:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all, and consequently the Parties agree that each Party (. . .) in the event of such an armed attack shall assist the Party or Parties attacked by taking, individually and in concert with the other Parties, without delay such measures as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic area.”
Reference is made to Article 51 of the UN Charter, which states that all countries have the right to “individual or collective self-defense in the event of armed attack.”
