The political unrest surrounding US President Donald Trump's ambitions to take over Greenland is likely making it easier for Russia to act "more freely" because the world's focus has shifted away from Ukraine, Pekka Turunen of the Finnish Defence Forces' General Staff told AFP.
At least on a political level, it has probably had an encouraging effect on Russia, he says.
In other words, Russia sees this political climate as a sign that the West, NATO, and Europe are in disarray, on the verge of collapse.
"Significant reinforcement"
"Russia is preparing to strengthen its military presence near Finland's borders. A more significant reinforcement will likely begin when the situation in Ukraine allows," Turunen writes in the introduction to an annual overview of a military intelligence report published in Finland earlier this week.
When the war in Ukraine is over, Russia can, according to him, recover and gather new strength, strengthen its military presence in the West and start fighting again within a few years.
"We are talking about more than two years. Sometime at the end of this decade. If we are talking about a large-scale war against the West or NATO, we are talking about two to five years. Smaller crises in Central Asia or the North Caucasus could probably become relevant earlier than that," he tells Hufvudstadsbladet.
Risk of drone intrusion
The security situation in Finland has deteriorated since the start of the war in Ukraine almost four years ago. In the past year, Russian activity in the Baltic Sea has increased and Ukraine has expanded its attacks deep inside Russia, including near Finland.
"The risk of aircraft or anti-aircraft weapons being diverted into Finnish territory increases as the attacks continue and become more diverse," the report states.
A situation can arise where a drone also accidentally flies into Finnish airspace, Turunen tells Svenska Yle.
So far, no drone incidents have been reported in Finland, which has a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia.
