Kölln's guess is that it is individuals within the left wing of the Social Democratic SPD who have chosen not to let the Christian Democrat Merz through.
Maybe one wants to signal that one is dissatisfied and then let him through in the second or third round, she says.
For Hubert Fromlet, professor affiliated with Linnaeus University and senior adviser to the German-Swedish Chamber of Commerce, the result also comes as a complete surprise:
There has probably been a bit of lukewarm interest from the Social Democrats even earlier, and there were some risks that it could go wrong. But I had not counted on it being no.
That it becomes a no after coalition negotiations have been going on for a relatively long time also surprises Göran von Sydow, head of the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (Sieps).
What surprises is that party discipline usually is quite strong in this type of sharp votes. Without having followed it in detail, one could still expect that there would have been an anchoring work that would enable a yes-vote.
It is a major setback for Merz – but also likely a disappointment outside of Germany, believes von Sydow.
There were many who had expected, and well looked forward to, a strong German leadership in this difficult situation that Europe finds itself in.
