There have been several reports of a Russian spring offensive. Some reports claim it has already begun. Others, such as Bloomberg's sources in Moscow, say it is underway.
But on the ground it is not noticeable.
There is always talk about an upcoming Russian offensive. A winter offensive, a summer offensive, an autumn offensive, an Easter offensive, a Christmas offensive, whatever.
He is a security policy analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI).
The interesting thing about it is that it is always in the future. But we don't see any difference.
Hopes split
According to the Washington-based think tank ISW, Russian forces took virtually no Ukrainian territory in March, the first time this has happened in two and a half years.
Russia cannot decide on the battlefield with its own resources, if it did it would have done it a long time ago. This war has gone badly for Russia. Nor can it just end it, for domestic political and perhaps other reasons.
What Russia can do is stall and hope that support for Ukraine will decrease and that the West will become disinterested, or divided, he says.
During that time, while we chew on it, it is important to maintain the image of a constant offensive. Both to influence us in the West and to give an image at home that this is, after all, moving forward.
If you look at the map, not much has changed since the end of 2022.
Advances 10 meters
He says that, in practical terms, the way the war is going now, it would take a lot of armored vehicles for that kind of significant offensive. But as soon as they gather near the front, they are shot to pieces.
Instead, Russia is forced to advance with the infantry, which, he says, "gets shot to pieces when they get ten meters before they fall."
It is also an offensive in some sense, but not the big decisive offensive.
