So far, the Russian president has dodged the ceasefire. But when he now picks up the phone with his American colleague, it will get tougher, predicts the British political scientist and historian Mark Galeotti.
I expect him to know that he needs to give a proper answer, he says.
Putin would probably have preferred to delay a ceasefire until they had managed to clear the border region of Kursk from Ukrainian soldiers – and until they had gotten more of their demands through, says Galeotti. But time is ticking.
They know that if they dismiss Trump, they will miss a historic opportunity to normalize relations (with the US) and get the sanctions lifted.
According to Trump, the conversation with Putin will be about "dividing up certain assets". Among other things, they will discuss territories and power plants, the president stated the other day.
Build up
Right now, it feels like Trump is showering gifts on Russia, says Galeotti. However, it can change quickly if Trump feels mistreated.
Putin certainly knows that things can become very problematic. An unrestrained Donald Trump would be much less restrictive towards Russia than, for example, Joe Biden was, predicts the Briton.
The question is what Putin really demands to say yes to the US-proposed ceasefire. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff, who was in Moscow last week, has not wanted to comment on whether it's about recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions, stopping Western Ukraine support, or a ban on foreign peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
Anyway, Russia will benefit from the month-long ceasefire that is on the negotiating table, believes Galeotti.
The Russians are trying to present it as if Ukraine would benefit the most from a ceasefire, but regardless, it will be advantageous for Russia with 30 days to regroup and build up, says he – and warns of further attacks after that.
Trump losing interest?
Several analysts make the same assessment. A ceasefire will give Russia a breather to attack again, warns the American think tank ISW, while analysts at the think tank Atlantic Council note that Putin likely feels far from done with Ukraine.
What happens after a ceasefire depends entirely on how the 30 days unfold, notes Mark Galeotti.
Are both sides willing to make the kind of compromises necessary (for long-term peace)?
If the answer is no, we will have 30 days of respite, but then the war will start again. And by that time, it's possible that Trump will have lost interest.
