The latest unrest in Syria broke out when Druze and Bedouins clashed at the end of last week. Since then, the country's regime has deployed military in the area, while Israel has carried out several attacks, both against the conflict hub in Sweida and the capital Damascus.
What we are seeing now is a complete downturn in a spiral of violence, says Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer in international security at King's College in London.
Israel, which borders Syria to the north, says it stands in solidarity with the Druze and describes the attacks as a way to defend the ethnic group.
But it's worth remembering that the civil war in Syria went on for a decade and many of those who died were Druze. Israel actually did nothing to intervene or stop it. Definitely not on the scale we see now.
"Change the balance of power”
The former long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in December last year and the country is now ruled by the Islamist rebel group HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Israel's attitude towards the region has changed since Hamas' terror attack in the country on October 7, 2023, and the ongoing war in Gaza, according to Geist Pinfold.
Previously, they were more willing to have Hamas in Gaza, the al-Assad regime in Syria, and Hezbollah on their border with Lebanon, while they are now using military power to change the balance of power in the region, he says.
And what we are seeing in Syria now is just a symptom of the broader strategic shift from Israel's side.
Rob Geist Pinfold does not believe that Israel has plans to conquer Syria.
They are not out to start a war with Syria or expand the occupation. They are not out for a regime change. But they are out to keep Syria as unstable as possible, for as long as possible.
Foreign interference
Syria, with a diversity of different ethnic groups among its 25 million inhabitants, has long been a victim of foreign powers that fuel divisions to promote their own interests. This is stated by Andreas Krieg, university lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College.
We have seen how the Russians weave narratives around HTS to try to "protect" Christians during the Christmas holiday. We have seen the Iranians claim that they are the "protectors of Shia Muslims" in Syria, he says to the German media company DW, and adds:
Israel is doing the same thing by saying that they are there to "defend" the Druze.
The UN Secretary-General condemns Israel's latest attacks on Syria on Wednesday.
The use of military force on Syrian territory against targets that do not directly pose a threat to Israel constitutes a clear violation of international law, according to Krieg.
