It is over 800 kilometers as the crow flies from the Ukrainian border to the Gulf of Finland. But despite the distance, it is likely that the drones flew all the way from Ukraine, says Roger Djupsjö, a major and military instructor at the Swedish National Defense University.
One drone crashed in Estonia and one in Latvia on March 25. Four days later, two crashed in Finland. These are long-range models that carry explosives for large-scale attacks.
In my view, these are drones that have flown from Ukraine. They must have used Belarusian airspace to carry out these flights, because I hardly think they circled Belarus.
Russian equipment
But Belarus, which is allied with Russia, is unlikely to allow Ukrainian drones to fly freely over its airspace.
Belarus certainly has Russian equipment and is doing its utmost to disrupt the drones from Ukraine that are heading towards the St. Petersburg area. But they have not been completely successful. To some extent, it may also be Belarus that has disrupted them so that they have entered Baltic or Finnish territory.
On Monday, Ukraine apologized to Finland after Sunday's crash, stating that the drones were probably disrupted by "Russian electronic warfare."
The result is that drones deviate from their planned path, which appears to have happened in these cases.
Misguidance
When a drone is disrupted, it is not steered in a specific direction; disruption only misleads the drones, which can then head in any direction.
As long as Ukraine attacks targets in Russia close to the border with other countries, there is a risk that the same thing will happen again, says Roger Djupsjö. Although the three countries where the drones crashed are taking the events seriously, the statements from them so far have not been particularly alarming.
These countries have chosen to side with Ukraine in the war, so they are more understanding when Ukraine strikes Russian targets. They are more upset when Russia does the same, since it is the adversary in this case.
This is something that can happen, and these countries must maintain a certain level of preparedness to be able to shoot down drones that cross the border to protect their own territory.
