Economist: “Important but fragile agreement”

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Economist: “Important but fragile agreement”
Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

The trade agreement between the US and China has an important symbolic value – but it is naive to believe that all problems have been solved, according to SEB economist Robert Bergqvist. One must not forget that this is an extremely complex relationship, he says.

After the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, it was announced that the United States would lower its tariffs on Chinese goods and that China would postpone restrictions on rare earth metals.

Robert Bergqvist, senior economist at SEB, describes the agreement as “fragile, but welcome nonetheless.” He is not surprised by the content, but says that the symbolic value should not be underestimated.

It is extremely important for the world that these two countries have joined hands, he says, adding:

A collapse would have been a disaster. Not only for the US and China economically, but also for the rest of the world. What is important now is that we get further opportunities for continued negotiations.

Unpredictable situation

Bergqvist wants to emphasize that the situation remains fragile and unpredictable, and that the relationship between the US and China is "extremely complex."

These are two superpowers competing for strategic leadership in the world. To think that all problems are solved by this is naive.

He also reminds us that Trump's signature is not written in stone.

The agreements that Donald Trump has made are a bit of a novelty. Things can happen at short notice that could lead to tariffs being raised. A very recent example is Canada.

According to Robert Bergqvist, the markets are so far reacting to the agreement with "a sigh of relief", but he does not believe in any major effects.

It would have been worse if there had been a breakdown in the negotiations, but there is not much new that will drive or lift the stock markets.

Dousa: Very positive

Sweden's Minister of Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa (M) hopes that the agreement represents "another step towards stability and predictability" that benefits the Swedish economy.

"It is also very positive for Sweden that the US and China now appear to have a trade agreement and thawed relations. The fact that China now appears to be easing its exports of rare earth metals is particularly important because we risked seeing several Swedish and European production stops otherwise in the near future," reads a written comment to TT.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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