At 1:30 p.m. in Paris, the decision will be made: will Marine Le Pen, the long-time figurehead of the French far right, be right or wrong in her appeal against last year's verdict for misuse of EU funds?
The outcome will primarily determine whether 57-year-old Le Pen is allowed to run in the presidential election in April 2027, or whether her National Rally party will instead nominate its 30-year-old party leader, Jordan Bardella.
In terms of opinion, it doesn't seem to matter much at the moment. Both Le Pen and Bardella are currently far ahead of all their competitors in the first round of the election - and for the most part also in round two.
Support for each other
Le Pen is the former “crown princess” who took over from her father, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2011 and who has come third, second and second in the last three presidential elections. She has made the National Front more respectable and tried to remove old anti-Semitism and racism to broaden the voter base.
Bardella is the young man who has invested everything in politics since his teens. He became the party's main candidate in the European elections at the age of 23 and party leader at 25.
The duo is close and actively supports each other.
"If justice forbids me from running, I will support Jordan Bardella with great energy, trust and conviction," Le Pen said at a joint meeting in Liévin this weekend.
They are not exactly the same, though. Bardella has clearly targeted support from big business and industry and has moved away from the party's old promise to keep the retirement age at 62.
Princess girlfriend
Le Pen is considered more popular, while Bardella attracted attention by hanging out on the cream shelf during the Monaco Formula 1 GP with his 23-year-old Italian influencer girlfriend: Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon and Two Sicilies.
Bardella still has the upper hand in public opinion. If he becomes the party's candidate, he would currently receive 35-37 percent of the vote in the first round of the election - up to 20 percentage points more than the closest challenger, according to the polling institute Ifop .
If Le Pen is allowed to run, she would receive 32 percent in the same survey - also a strong lead.
Le Pen could have her election ban shortened by the court, but has said that she does not intend to run if she is forced to run with restrictions or in shackles.
Facts: The verdict against Le Pen
A French court ruled last year that Marine Le Pen, a long-time leading figure in the nationalist party National Rally, and about 20 other party representatives used EU funds illegally when they received EU grants for their assistants in the European Parliament from 2004 to 2016, but actually let them work on completely different things back home in France.
For example, an EU assistant effectively served as a bodyguard and driver for party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen.
The ruling against Le Pen means that she is barred from running in elections for five years.
She was also sentenced to a fine of 100,000 euros and four years in prison, two of which are suspended. If the sentence is enforced, she is expected to serve it in ankle shackles, without being locked up.
