The falls in the exchange rate are brutal. Not least for AI-wave's poster child Nvidia. But also for Swedish companies with ties to AI investments – such as Munters, Atlas Copco, and ABB.
It must be viewed as a bolt from the blue, says Esbjörn Lundevall, stock strategist at SEB, about the new app from Deepseek.
"A gigantic leap forward"
That Chinese companies are developing AI apps is in itself no news. What's shaking things up is that it's being done so quickly and with significantly cheaper and less advanced chips than those used in the AI industry in the USA.
The big thing is that there's such a huge difference in cost. It's obviously a gigantic leap forward with a single step, says Lundevall.
Lars Söderfjell at Ålandsbanken is skeptical about whether Deepseek will be able to break through on a broad front in the West. Not least considering the looming risk that the Trump administration could escalate the "tech war" between the USA and China with some kind of ban on Deepseek in the USA – of the same kind as Tiktok has been hit by.
And many IT departments will probably block Deepseek's app when they realize what this is, says Söderfjell.
But he adds that even if Deepseek were to be stopped or shut out in the West, the fact remains that the company – which was started just over a year ago – with a limited budget and significantly simpler chips has managed to produce an AI model with virtually the same capacity as American Open AI.
It's a "game-changer" in the sense that it's a technology that's super interesting.
"Challenging" valuations on AI shares
The sharp falls in the exchange rate for Nvidia and other AI shares describe Söderfjell as a typical reflex – perhaps exaggerated. The market is ducking when it has discovered something that can quickly change highly inflated valuations on AI shares in the West and pave the way for a significant price pressure in the sector.
This can be disruptive. But how big a disturbance will it be? No idea, says Söderfjell.
He views the valuations of AI shares in the USA as "pretty challenging". They assume what he calls "more or less flawless delivery" in the coming years.
If you find something that makes that scenario less likely – well, then the risk increases when it comes to future profits, and then there'll be an adjustment downward.
