If many working-class jobs have disappeared in previous technological shifts, it is the salaried employees who are next in line in the expected AI revolution.
But AI (Artificial Intelligence) does not threaten all jobs. Certainly, many salaried jobs are at risk, but it is not the first time this has happened in history.
Jobs disappear all the time, says Victoria Kirchhoff, the vice chairman of the Union, a union for salaried employees.
Seven percent of jobs
Roughly estimated, 300,000 Swedish jobs may disappear over the next ten years, according to a report released by Almega, the organization for service employers, in the spring, based primarily on American research.
Seven percent of jobs may be replaced by AI within a ten-year period, says Patrick Joyce, chief economist at Almega.
It may sound like a lot, but in a ten-year perspective, it is not that many. AI will change more jobs and create many new ones, he continues. He does not see any wave of mass unemployment ahead of him.
The professions most exposed to AI are found in finance and insurance, communication, programming, law, and public administration. Two out of three salaried jobs are moderately exposed to AI, meaning that work tasks can at least be partially performed by advanced computer power. One in five professions is highly vulnerable to AI, according to the study. Much of it is about rule-based, repetitive tasks that a computer can do much faster and more efficiently, according to Patrick Joyce.
More efficient jobs
But new jobs will also be created, and many work tasks that are expected to disappear partially, when AI can take over much administration, can instead become more efficient. For example, doctors' and nurses' jobs will not disappear, but they will be spared administration.
This is a major technological shift we are talking about, which will have a significant impact on the Swedish labor market, where mainly better-paid jobs that require more education are at risk of disappearing. But Sweden has all the prerequisites to handle this well, we are digitally mature and have a good negotiation structure in the workplaces. Both unions and employers are fairly agreed on this.
At the core, this is about competence development, she says and advises employees who suspect that their own job is at risk to "take care of their own house", says Kirchhoff.
Employers have a clear responsibility, says Patrick Joyce, who, however, demands tax relief to further educate staff.
