After the Regime: Hope and Anxiety for Syrians in the EU

Ten years after the major refugee crisis, EU countries are hoping for a stream in the opposite direction. The regime's fall in Syria raises hopes that more will return – but also concern about what the new leadership really means.

» Published: December 11 2024

After the Regime: Hope and Anxiety for Syrians in the EU
Photo: Hussain Malla/AP/TT

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In a situation where return is the buzzword number one in migration policy, Bashar al-Assad's fall in Damascus comes as a pure Christmas gift for many EU countries.

For example, Italy and Denmark have already previously pushed for it to be possible to send back migrants and refugees to at least parts of Syria. Now that the old regime is fleeing, the pressure will likely become even stronger - perhaps already when the EU's migration ministers hold their regular December meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

If there is a sustainable peace in Syria, many Syrians will no longer need protection and thus the basis for their residence permit in Germany will disappear, says German MP Andrea Lindholz from the conservative CSU to the Rheinische Post newspaper.

"Great hope"

Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and several other EU countries have already quickly paused the handling of all Syrian asylum applications, awaiting clarity.

However, human rights organization Amnesty International is strongly critical of this.

"The security of Syrians in Europe must not be sacrificed for political interests," warns Amnesty, pointing out that countries are obliged to treat all asylum applications individually and on a case-by-case basis.

The EU Commission is cautious for the time being.

We are convinced that most Syrians outside the country have dreamed of returning over the past ten years. The current situation gives great hope - but also great uncertainty. Therefore, it is still better not to speculate too much about the future, said Anouar El Anouni, foreign affairs spokesman for the new EU Commission, at a press briefing on Monday.

Proposal in the spring

The demands for a tougher migration policy have already prompted the EU Commission to promise an updated proposal on how to speed up and coordinate the return of persons who do not have asylum grounds in Europe. The proposal from the new Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner has also been accelerated and is said to come as early as spring, rather than summer.

In Sweden, the government has officially backed calls for the Commission to also investigate the creation of "return hubs" - where EU countries can jointly send people who are to be deported.

Paradoxically, there is also concern that the regime change in Syria could lead to new refugee flows, if ethnic and religious minorities worry about how the country will be governed in the future.

EU member states have had extensive sanctions against hundreds of Syrians - as well as Russians - who are accused of various forms of abuse, including the use of chemical weapons, during the civil war in Syria.

The situation after the regime's fall is complicated by the fact that the Islamist alliance HTS and its leader, who forced long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad to flee, are also on the UN and EU sanctions lists for organizations and individuals linked to terrorist organizations IS and al-Qaeda.

The EU's new foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has called the regime's fall a "historic opportunity" and urged cooperation.

"Everyone must have the opportunity to reunite, stabilize and rebuild their country, restore justice and ensure accountability," Kallas wrote on Monday.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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